![]() In this technique, two key uncertainties are represented by so-called scenario axes, the extremes of which correspond to the two possible outcomes of these uncertainties. In practice, deductive scenario planning approaches most often utilize a specific 2×2 scenario matrix technique, originated by Shell. (2013) describe deductive processes beginning with the broad framework of the scenarios, then refining and inserting data in these scenarios. (2017) specify deductive approaches as general-to-specific techniques to identify key uncertainties. In other words, in deductive methods, the big picture of the developed scenarios is sketched out in an early phase of the process. “In the general sense, deductive scenario planning methods can be considered as processes that build the scenarios in a top-down manner. I will quote his thesis at length…” Deductive approaches Seeve (2018) highlights the difference between deductive and inductive scenario planning approaches. For their application to ParEvo, see below. Bell (1997, 148) observed that “ The future is nonevidential and cannot be observed therefore, there are no facts about the future.” The creativity- and imagination-based dimension is what sets futures methods apart from most other social science research methods“ McBrideĪnother perspective has been provided by McBride et al (2017). But as Bengston notes “…there are limits to evidence-based approaches to studying a future that does not exist. But within any ParEvo exercise, there is room for expert input, quantitative data, and real-world evidence. In terms of this framework, ParEvo is on the qualitative, imagination and participatory edge of this space. In the above paper, Bengston describes three axes that can be used to differentiate different types of scenario planning methods: Futures Research Methods and Applications in Natural Resources.Society & Natural Resources, 32(10), 1099–1113. ![]() ![]() There are many different ways of doing scenario planning, and variants of scenario planning (futures exploration/research, horizon scanning, strategic foresight, etc.). The storyline products of a ParEvo fit this description of a scenario Typologies of scenario planning approaches Herman Khan (1967)defined scenarios as “ hypothetical sequences of events, built with the intention of attracting attention to causal processes and points of decision” The storyline products of a ParEvo fit this description How scenario planning differs from other related approaches Typologies of scenario planning approaches.
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